Foresight monitoring is emerging as a key strategic skill for companies wishing to anticipate transformations in their sector and adapt to future disruptions. In a cross-interview, Christophe Lecante , director and founder of TKM-Technology Knowledge Metrix and Éric Le Tallec , director and founder of the international development consultancy CB2i Consulting share their vision of prospective monitoring, its concrete applications and the challenges that she poses. Let's discover together the many facets of this approach, which they explore through their rich and complementary journeys and experiences.
WHAT IS STRATEGIC FORESIGHTING?
Strategic foresight can be described as a structured approach aimed at anticipating future developments and preparing for them proactively , taking into account the uncertainty and complex dynamics that now characterize the global economy.
“Strategic foresight is a multidisciplinary approach with a liberated mindset, where it involves imagining what your company could look like in 10 to 15 years. » — Éric Le Tallec
Strategic foresight explores possible futures to identify emerging trends and potential disruptions , while taking into account the complex interactions between economic, social, technological, political and environmental factors. It stimulates innovation by encouraging creative approaches outside the usual frameworks in force in the company.
Resolutely action-oriented , it influences strategic decisions to maximize opportunities and reduce risks. Collaborative , it relies on the collective intelligence of stakeholders to enrich the scenarios. Finally, it remains pragmatic , because it aims to translate its analyzes into concrete applications and operational action plans.
“Anticipatory, systemic, creative and pragmatic, the prospective approach is based above all on a state of mind which promotes the implementation of collective intelligence within the company” — Éric Le Tallec
It is a key tool for organizations, allowing them to anticipate disruptions and adapt to a world in constant transformation while developing an ambitious and structured vision of their future. It therefore “feeds” on 360° prospective monitoring.
WHAT IS FORESIGHT MONITORING?
Foresight monitoring is a process of monitoring and proactive analysis of weak signals , emerging trends, and developments likely to influence the future of an organization or a sector. It aims to fuel the strategic foresight approach.
It differs from strategic monitoring by the time horizon it targets : it does not simply examine the current state of the market, but aims to nourish a 10 or 15 year vision and to put the management teams in a state of vigilance and strategic preparation in the face of uncertainty.
It allows you to explore scenarios towards which the company could evolve, and possibly integrates major disruptions and underlying trends which will feed its strategic thinking.
What are the objectives of prospective monitoring?
- Anticipate developments : provide elements of anticipation to better understand future dynamics and prepare for them.
- Informing the strategy : enabling informed strategic decision-making by offering insights on very varied fields and sometimes far removed from the company's current businesses.
- Reduce uncertainty : by identifying weak or emerging signals, it makes it possible to better identify risks and detect opportunities.
- Stimulate innovation : by nourishing the vision of what is to become, it opens up new perspectives for research and innovation.
What are the tools of prospective monitoring?
There is a wide variety of monitoring methods to fuel a prospective approach , but all are based on their ability to capture information, analyze it, capitalize on it and inform it in a longer time perspective than the operational strategy:
- Identification of weak signals : identify the beginnings of major changes using state-of- the-art studies , maps and/or benchmarks covering a broad spectrum of sources (articles, projects, patents, forums, conferences, white papers, etc.) .). For more information on this topic, read State of the art: why is it important to have a multisource approach?
- Trend mapping : visualize the major dynamics of development in a given field, the problems encountered, the actors.
- Scripting and construction of possible futures : the scenario method makes it possible to explore possible futures while also taking into account their estimated probability of occurrence. It is then a matter of imagining the potential impacts on the company's strategy. A summary matrix will make it possible to distinguish very probable futures with a strong impact on the company's business model from other scenarios.
- Analysis of actors and networks : by mapping the stakeholders of an ecosystem and their relationships, the aim is to detect profound developments at a stage where they are still barely perceptible to most observers.
- Collaborative workshops : methods such as design fiction or serious gaming make it possible to project multidisciplinary teams into possible futures (or even futures deemed impossible) to draw insights into response plans, or even low-noise research areas aimed at initially to internalize knowledge on new or barely emerging subjects.
- Information analysis platforms : AI, and in particular natural language processing (NLP) , makes it possible to explore very large heterogeneous databases. This allows the detection of weak signals , extracted from massive data or even the use of predictive models which make it possible to develop trends from known historical data.
This type of monitoring mobilizes specific methods and tools to bring out a vision and potential transformations. In this, it characterizes more a state of mind than a unique methodology.
In an increasingly complex and volatile environment , the exercise may prove futile and useless. This is a serious mistake that business leaders should not make.
Because if prospective monitoring does not aim to predict the future, it makes it possible to prepare organizations and teams for future changes , to acquire (perhaps quietly at first) useful knowledge tomorrow, and above all to be more agile and reactive if one day certain weak signals become obvious.
THE FOUNDATIONS OF FORESIGHT MONITORING: ANTICIPATE AND PREPARE
Companies that practice forecasting therefore do not seek to predict the future, but to understand the dynamics likely to shape their future environment. This anticipation is based on cutting-edge tools and technologies.
At TKM IPMetrix monitoring and analysis platform makes it possible to analyze and visualize information from all scientific, technological and economic literature (including from SHS).
It makes it possible to identify strategic signals that can reveal profound changes (or the announcement of these changes) at an early enough stage so that they contain more opportunities than threats.
“The question is whether the changes we imagine possible represent a threat or a strategic opportunity and whether we should start preparing for them” — Christophe Lecante
This process requires continuous analysis of technological, societal and regulatory developments. For example, changes in the availability of certain rare natural resources (copper, lithium, pharmacopoeia, etc.) can cause disruptions in global supply chains, as can difficulties linked to maritime transport on a global scale. .
Anticipation thus allows companies to take stock of these risks and their impacts for them very early, in order to respond proactively. This can lead them (R&D) to gradually evolve the components and materials of their products, or to design them differently to facilitate future reuse even if it means imagining new sectors and new partners. This gradual evolution can also be achieved by diversifying sources of supply.
So many changes that could not be improvised in a hurry or under the pressure of yet another crisis once the company has already been weakened.
- Read also — L’Oréal and TKM: high-precision monitoring
THE SCENARIO METHOD: A CENTRAL TOOL FOR NAVIGATING UNCERTAINTY
One of the methods used in forecasting is scenario construction , which consists of developing several visions of the future to anticipate its impacts.
These scenarios focus less on predicting outcomes than on understanding the forces that would lead to them.
It's about making hypotheses, thinking about "what could happen if a certain critical factor intervenes" whether it's a new technology, new entrants or even a resource crisis. ... Then, to evaluate the probability of occurrence of these hypotheses, while being attentive to their possible impacts on one's own organization (So What) in these new possible environments.
“The Japanese have this culture of planning very long-term transformations, and it is an entire value chain, from upstream to downstream, which is organized to gradually move towards disruptive products. Like high-pressure tanks to store hydrogen in trains, trucks and fuel cell electric vehicles. » — Éric Le Tallec
This culture of foresight , deeply rooted in Asia, inspires the strategies of large industrial groups and promotes their rapid adaptation to new technologies. For Asians, the aim of exploratory scenarios is therefore to question, challenge and nourish the strategic thinking of decision-makers beyond five years to ensure the sustainability of the company.
TRANSFORMING WEAK SIGNALS INTO STRATEGIC LEVERS
Prospective monitoring also allows companies to imagine new business models very early on based on anticipated developments.
For example, faced with a scenario of lasting inflation, the scarcity of certain components or even a growing demand for more eco-responsible solutions (etc.), how can a household appliance manufacturer begin to interested in the functionality economy?
By imagining very different futures very early on, she gives herself the chance to prepare for them even better, to anticipate the consequences. But anticipating does not necessarily imply deciding right away! On the other hand, if the signs accumulate that these changes become inevitable, the knowledge acquired will allow a faster and more agile pivot.
“The weak signal is early warning information, of low intensity, which can announce an important trend and impact the least alert companies. At the beginning of the 2000s, the Japanese launched a new mobile phone, called i-mode©. A true “pocket Internet”, it allows access to interactive services, for example online media. The signal is not so much the product (it is not the first mobile), but what it offers to potential readers, eager for new technologies. Many newspapers around the world will disappear in the following years for not having integrated this megatrend early enough as a source of a new advertising revenue business model. » — Éric Le Tallec
Beyond the transformation of economic models, prospective monitoring is also essential to guide choices in terms of research and innovation . It makes it possible to direct R&D investments very early towards emerging technologies or long-term projects.
The information detected by IPMetrix, thanks to the analysis of research work (including fundamental), scientific articles or even theses, offers an overview of the technologies of tomorrow. It is an essential support for companies that want to position themselves ahead of their competitors.
FORESIGHT MONITORING IN FRANCE: A FULLY EXPANDING FIELD
In France, prospective monitoring remains under-exploited , particularly within SMEs, which are often less aware of this approach. However, initiatives such as the training offered by the BPI make it possible to highlight its importance in strengthening the competitiveness of French companies.
Éric Le Tallec regrets that French SMEs often have difficulty integrating foresight into their strategy, due to a lack of dedicated means and resources:
“What is still missing in France is continuity in this forward-looking approach. For many SMEs, analysis is still too often limited to a short-term vision” — Éric Le Tallec
However, the benefits of such an approach are multiple: anticipation of disruptions , better risk management , ability to respond quickly to market transformations. Foresight monitoring unites teams, contributes to developing a corporate culture focused on innovation and thus allows business management to integrate a long-term vision into their strategic decision-making processes.
THE STEPS OF IMPLEMENTING AN EFFECTIVE FORESIGHT MONITORING STRATEGY
To structure prospective monitoring, it is essential to define a suitable methodology . Christophe Lecante and Éric Le Tallec recommend a three-phase approach:
- Understand the context : identify major trends, analyze the economic, technological and regulatory environment.
- Anticipate developments : deploy open monitoring to monitor relevant megatrends and detect possible weak signals as well as future opportunities and threats (standards, regulations, technological innovations or major societal changes).
- Act : integrate this information as much as necessary into the company's strategy. Based on the scenarios developed, define the actions to be implemented to take advantage of opportunities and minimize risks.
These steps then require specific tools. With platforms like IPMetrix, companies can, for example, simply visualize complex data , detect strategic correlations, identify weak signals and, where applicable, future partners (laboratories, start-ups, etc.) proactively . The idea is to transform massive and difficult to digest data into actionable strategic . It involves building a global strategic intelligence on the long-term developments of the company at little cost (time and budget) and preparing it for these changes early enough to avoid damage (human, social and industrial).
Foresight monitoring should therefore no longer be an option, but an imperative for companies seeking to remain competitive in a constantly changing world. It makes it possible to transform uncertainties into concrete actions and to build a resilient organization in the face of future transformations.
“Preparing for the future means above all questioning what exists in the light of yesterday, trying to understand its future impacts and then seeing disruptions as opportunities for pivot and growth. » — Christophe Lecante
Do you want to transform your forecast monitoring into a strategic growth lever? Find out how TKM can help you anticipate developments in your sector and optimize your decisions and request a demonstration .
ABOUT ÉRIC LE TALLEC AND CB2i CONSULTING
Éric Le Tallec is director of the consulting firm CB2i Consulting, whose mission is to help companies develop in local markets in Europe.
After having held international management positions for fifteen years within a Japanese multinational, Éric supports SMEs and ETIs in understanding international markets and prescribing their innovations within the targeted industrial ecosystems.
CB2I Consulting facilitates the upstream work of the exporting company through advice and operational support in order to put companies in the best conditions before considering the possible establishment of a structure on the targeted market.
Member of the Societal and Public Action (ASAP) observatory on public innovation, columnist on international development issues within the Entreprendre magazine, Éric le Tallec also organizes and runs training workshops on strategic foresight with SMEs and mid-sized companies within Bpifrance.
