In this context, proactive monitoring should ideally allow us to perceive what others are not yet seeing. But how can we distinguish, within the ever-increasing mass of information, the faint signal heralding a significant change?

By adopting the right methodology and equipping yourself with the right tools. Explanation.

Weak signals: definition

A weak signal is a piece of information of low intensity, or a deduction from an isolated fact or partial information, which, once amplified, can fuel strategic forward thinking aimed at anticipating a crisis or its impacts on the company.

It allows us to anticipate an event (or a series of events) well before its occurrence becomes clearly evident to all observers.

A weak signal can slip through the cracks of an internal monitoring system without its strategic value being detected. Sometimes, during a post-incident review, we realize in hindsight that we had all the (albeit weak) warning signs indicating that a competitor was about to launch a highly innovative or impactful product.

The weak signal is indeed potentially a carrier of key information whose highly strategic nature may not be obvious at this stage to a majority of employees who will have this information in their hands.

Thus, a weak signal refers to:

• This information will not be of strategic value to 99% of the population
• But who will have an impact on a business / an industry / a technological field?

Good to know: The concept of weak signal can be attributed to Igor Ansoff in the 1970s and taken up and amplified in France by Professor Humbert Lesca, Professor Emeritus at the University of Grenoble, in the context of his work on Strategic Foresight (SFT).

Weak signals: two examples

In 2014, the whole world discovered the Apple Watch!

What a surprise! Probably not for a seasoned observer, who had the opportunity from the early 2000s to observe the growing interest of the American giant in "wearable technologies" , illustrated by a few acquisitions and then by the filing of several patents specific to "wearable electronic devices" from 2011.

As this example illustrates, it is the convergence of several distinct and fragmented pieces of information that can give rise to an intuition , a starting point for reflection for the analyst. At this stage, one can still obviously be mistaken and see meaning where there may not be any.

Another example: the emergence of virtual reality.

In an analysis conducted in 2015, TKM traced the emergence of virtual reality and its industrial applications, analyzing scientific publications conducted by hundreds of researchers worldwide over the previous 20 years. 

The various "building blocks" that make up virtual reality were initially the subject of entirely independent research. Then, more and more projects began to focus on the connections between these fields (video capture, geolocation, computing power, digital models, etc.). These connections intensified , leading to the emergence of virtual reality as a distinct field in 2000, whose subsequent growth is now widely recognized.

An observer attentive to the evolution of the content of these scientific publications could thus reasonably have a significant head start and anticipation advantage over his competitors.

These examples illustrate an important point: detecting a weak signal in itself is not enough. It must be investigated, validated, and verified. It is necessary to be able to find other signals that will allow this weak signal to be transformed, if necessary, into a clear signal.

Join our webinar “How to detect and exploit weak signals?

WHY IS IT ESSENTIAL TO ATTEND EARLY WARNINGS?

A technological breakthrough can also be a subtle signal that can usefully inform a proactive innovation strategy. For example, the fact that it is now possible to industrially integrate micro-LEDs into textiles might give an R&D manager in the automotive industry the intuition that there is something innovative to be invented.

Also, the same weak signal can be indicative of :

• An opportunity : by quickly seizing the weak signal, you can be among the first to take advantage of the new application that results from it.
• A threat : this same weak signal can herald the arrival of new entrants in a given market.

In any case, to avoid being "uberized" by more innovative competitors, it is essential to equip oneself to identify early warning signs , and then decide what to do with them.

Read also – Strategic intelligence: how to detect opportunities and threats in time?

HOW TO AVOID MISSING A WEAK SIGNAL DURING MONITORING WORK?

By definition, a weak signal can come from extremely varied sources . It can surface during highly focused monitoring of a specific topic, emanate from the results of a working group on the evolution of a standard, emerge from a competing patent, or even originate from a technical, industrial, or economic field very far removed from its own. A weak signal can thus be detected just as easily within its daily scope as from a completely unrelated universe . And therein lies the complexity of the exercise!

It is therefore advisable not to limit one's monitoring to one's core business , but rather to keep an eye on: indirect competitive intelligence, Mega trends, start-up monitoring, regulatory monitoring, financial monitoring, etc.

In the field of innovation, patent databases and scientific publications – obviously – but also collaborative projects, theses, web articles… are essential sources for a technological and scientific monitoring worthy of the name.

However, in the current context of information overload, the search for a weak signal can quickly become like looking for a needle in a huge haystack!

To avoid losing your monitoring unit in the maze of irrelevant information, it is important to equip it with the appropriate monitoring tools.

TKM PLATFORM : A GAME-CHANGING MULTI-SOURCE MONITORING TOOL

Human intuition is key in the process of identifying a weak signal. Generic AI will not be sufficient to make sense of isolated pieces of information, as a human can. However, AI can greatly help in synthesizing and quickly building a basic understanding of a given domain, thus enabling the monitoring of distant fields.

It is in this state of mind that the TKM software platform was designed.

Thanks to their information search and synthesis mechanisms, these tools allow analysts to reduce the time spent analyzing the mass of existing information, while also allowing the phenomenon of de-fixation .

In other words, thanks to our platform, companies can break out of their dominant thinking patterns and explore areas that were previously unfamiliar but potentially carry weak signals and are sources of interesting opportunities!